Iran Uses Strait of Hormuz Control to Push for Trump Backdown
Iran hopes that controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy transit route, will ultimately compel US President Donald Trump to accept Tehran's demands, according to an analytical report by the Times of Israel. The outlet reports that Iranian leaders are banking on growing shortages of certain key US munitions, voter discontent over rising energy costs, and the high military cost of forcing the strait open. The report notes that prior to the war, Iran was well aware that keeping the strait open as an international waterway handled about a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. Tehran has also warned that the strait will not return to its previous status and will target ships passing through without Iranian permission. The Iranian Joint Military Command called this position an unbreakable red line. Iran states it is close to an agreement with Oman to manage the strait, which lies between the two countries, but implementation of such an agreement would be conditioned on lifting the US blockade and therefore require Trump's approval even without direct talks. It remains unclear whether this agreement would allow Iran to collect transit tolls, but in either case it could formalise Tehran's control over a part of the waterway previously open to international shipping. Abdolreza Davari, an analyst and former adviser to former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, told the media outlet that Iran's primary goal is more about confirming its management and sovereignty over the strait than the revenue. Mostafa Najafi, a security analyst based in Tehran, also described the control of Hormuz as leverage for deterrence, maintaining the regional power balance, and changing security rules in the Persian Gulf. According to the analysis, solidifying Iranian control over the strait would be a major victory for Tehran and a defeat for Washington, particularly as Washington has yet to achieve some of its shifting war goals. Such a situation could also undermine the principle of freedom of navigation and set a troubling precedent that countries can unilaterally block global trade bottlenecks. China, which buys oil from Iran and holds influence over Tehran, called in May for a return to normal and safe passage through the strait. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief negotiator, wrote on social media that they started the war, but the end was never up to them, adding that they always decide when the war ends. He added that Iran seeks the defeat of the enemy, not merely an agreement. Mohammadi also said Iran's surprise attack on Jordan in July compensated for falling oil prices, an event that contributed to the collapse of the interim June agreement. That agreement included a US waiver for international sales of Iranian oil and the promise of broader sanctions relief. However, the Times of Israel emphasised that Iran's strategy comes with serious risks. US and Israeli strikes have damaged Iran's industrial infrastructure, the US blockade has disrupted a large portion of oil exports, and food inflation in Iran has reached triple-digit levels. Trump has also repeatedly threatened to target civilian infrastructure, including water and electricity networks, with massive attacks. In December, a currency crisis led to one of the largest anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history. According to the report, security forces killed thousands and detained tens of thousands during the crackdown on these protests. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's former foreign minister and a negotiator of the 2015 nuclear deal, recently warned that if Tehran does not reach an agreement quickly, economic recovery will be difficult and the possibility of domestic unrest or the resumption of military aggression, especially after the US elections, cannot be ruled out. Rahman Gahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst, said Tehran is using the Strait of Hormuz to show it is undefeated and to boost domestic legitimacy, but Iran cannot sustain this strategy forever and will eventually have to reach an agreement with the US. Conversely, Davari said that despite economic pressures, Iran is unlikely to back down from its positions under current conditions. The report also added that the nuclear war has temporarily sidelined Iran, and control of the strait could provide Tehran with more leverage if nuclear negotiations resume.