Analysis: Israel is redrawing the map in Syria and Lebanon with ‘Forward Deterrence’ doctrine

Policy analyst Amine Ayoub argues in a Ynet commentary that Israel's traditional security doctrine, which relied on periodic airstrikes and intelligence monitoring, ended after October 7. He asserts that Israel has replaced containment with a doctrine of 'Forward Deterrence,' aimed at physical control of space and neutralizing threats before they materialize. The analysis highlights the August 18, 2026, precision strikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, which Israeli officials stated were intended to prevent the deployment of Turkish radar and air-defense systems near the border. While the Syrian government confirmed Turkish visits for training cooperation, it denied plans for a permanent base; Turkey denied any military delegation was present during the strike. In South Lebanon, the IDF has established a forward defense line and is dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure to secure the return of northern residents. Ayoub writes that these actions aim to reshape the operational geography and dictate the conditions of national survival, though he acknowledges the strategy carries significant diplomatic risks and potential for regional friction.