Netanyahu expands control over Likud candidate list with guaranteed slots

The Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, announced early Tuesday that Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, Defence Minister Israel Katz, and party central committee chairman Haim Katz will be granted guaranteed positions on the party's electoral list. These three spots are in addition to the eight quotas previously reserved for Netanyahu's personal appointees. Consequently, 11 of the first 29 spots on the ruling party's list will be allocated to candidates chosen directly by the party leader, rather than by the approximately 140,000 Likud members eligible to vote in the 17 August primary. The decision, announced shortly after 1:00 am, is scheduled for approval by the Likud secretariat on Tuesday. Regarding Israel Katz, the party stated that the internal party court ruled he should be granted a guaranteed spot to allow him to focus on security requirements without engaging in political campaigning. The party further claimed that Katz would likely have secured a high position regardless, making the guarantee inconsequential. Likud added that Sa'ar’s guaranteed spot was promised as part of the merger agreement between his 'New Hope' party and Likud last year, while Haim Katz is entitled to a spot due to his role as central committee chairman. However, the announcement did not clarify why these three individuals are not utilising the eight quotas already at Netanyahu’s disposal, a point likely to trigger internal party opposition. The expansion of Netanyahu’s reserved quotas to eight was met with resistance within Likud last month. If approved by the secretariat, Netanyahu will effectively control 11 of the top 29 spots—more than a third of the positions considered realistically electable. In Israel’s electoral system, a higher position on the list increases a candidate's chances of entering the Knesset, with the number of realistic spots determined by the party's share of the total vote. Likud is one of the few Israeli parties to hold primaries for both its leader and its Knesset list. Recent polls suggest Likud may win between 22 and 24 seats in the 27 October election, a significant decrease from its current 32. With 11 spots already allocated, only 11 to 13 positions remain for primary competition, despite more than double that number of current MKs and ministers expected to run. Competition has intensified further following a ruling by the Likud internal court that overturned a central committee decision allowing current and former MKs to compete for regional district quotas. These quotas were historically reserved for new candidates to encourage diversity and the entry of fresh faces into the Knesset. The announcement followed controversy surrounding one of Netanyahu’s eight personal picks, entrepreneur Oren Dobronsky, who was revealed to have previously described former US President Donald Trump as 'morally corrupt and an asshole'. Likud has not yet specified where Sa'ar, Israel Katz, and Haim Katz will be placed on the list. Netanyahu’s eight chosen candidates are set to occupy the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 11th, 15th, 18th, 26th, and 29th spots.