Speculation grows over Mecca Pact expansion: From Iran’s potential entry to Egypt’s hesitation

Less than three weeks after Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, attention has shifted to the potential expansion of the pact. Signed on August 7, the agreement stipulates that an armed attack against any member will be considered an attack against all. While Bangladesh has expressed interest and Egypt is currently reviewing the prospect, conflicting reports regarding an invitation to Iran have emerged, which the Iranian Foreign Ministry has denied.

Mohammad Ali Zafar, a research scholar at the University of Oxford, suggests the pact could serve as a structure for diplomatic coordination and the sharing of military expertise. However, he notes that the accession of countries like Bangladesh could unsettle India, and Iran's potential entry carries significant strategic contradictions. Some Iranian analysts argue that joining the pact would be a strategic miscalculation, potentially rendering Iran a more vulnerable target.

Egypt is also approaching the matter with caution. Ofir Winter, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), states that Cairo is evaluating the potential military commitments involved. Furthermore, the Egypt-Israel peace treaty requires Cairo to avoid obligations that conflict with the treaty. For Israel, the primary concern remains Turkey's role and the rhetoric of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Ultimately, experts suggest the true test of the pact lies in its ability to manage the competing interests of its members. While the Trump administration has encouraged greater burden-sharing among regional allies, it remains unclear whether the agreement will evolve into a cohesive military alliance or remain a limited diplomatic framework.