Israel’s Gaza militia experiment nears its end as Hamas secures a key demand

According to Dr. Michael Milshtein, a senior researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, Israel's project to establish a network of local militias in Gaza as a counterweight to Hamas is on the verge of collapse. Hamas has successfully inserted a demand into the 15-point negotiation framework requiring these militias to be disarmed and their members barred from joining the security forces of a future technocratic government.

These groups, largely composed of former Palestinian Authority security personnel, operate in areas under IDF control. However, reports indicate they face severe challenges, including a lack of public legitimacy, involvement in criminal activities, and the looting of humanitarian aid. Many Gazans compare these groups to the 'Lahad Army' in Lebanon, a term synonymous with collaboration with an enemy and eventual abandonment by their patrons.

Analysts suggest that as negotiations for a multinational force and Gaza's reconstruction advance, the economic power of these militias—which relies on activities around border crossings—will diminish. Should the IDF withdraw from current positions, the collapse of these militias and the risk of retribution against their members are considered highly likely.

This analysis emphasizes that Israeli policymakers, repeating historical mistakes, assumed they could reshape Gaza's social structure without accounting for its political and national realities. Israel now faces practical dilemmas, including the fate of these fighters and the damage to its regional image as an unreliable patron.