Hormuz crisis hides a deeper oil threat that could outlast the war

While global attention remains fixed on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, petroleum geologist and energy consultant Art Berman warns that a more consequential energy story is unfolding underground. Berman explains that millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil production remain shut in, and restoring these wells is a complex, high-risk process that goes far beyond simply reopening the strategic waterway. He describes this as a potentially world-changing event that could persist long after political issues are resolved. The International Energy Agency’s August 12, 2026, report noted that Gulf oil production remains 8.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) below pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated July production shut-ins at 5.5 mb/d. Berman emphasizes that restarting a well is not like flipping a switch, as extended shutdowns can create complications within reservoirs. While some analysts, such as Wood Mackenzie, are more optimistic and project that most production could return within six months, Berman warns that some output may never recover. The White House pushed back on these concerns, highlighting record U.S. oil and gas production as a pillar of national security and energy independence. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated that Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz have underscored the need for allies to invest in secure energy sources and strengthen partnerships with the United States.