Could gas prices return to 2022 highs on US-Iran war?

European gas prices have more than doubled to approach 75 euros per megawatt-hour due to the conflict between the US and Iran, which has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway previously transported about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG. As Europe prepares for winter, current gas storage levels stand at an average of 67 percent, significantly lower than the 79 percent recorded at this time last year. Industry lobby group INES has warned that the window for sufficient refilling is closing. Julien Mathonniere of Energy Intelligence told AFP that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist through the winter, a price range of 100 to 150 euros per megawatt-hour is plausible. However, analysts consider a return to the 2022 peaks, when prices exceeded 300 euros per megawatt-hour, to be unlikely. Unlike the 2022 crisis, which was triggered by the sudden loss of 45 percent of the bloc's gas supply from Russia, Europe has since reorganized its supply chains and increased its reliance on renewable energy, which accounted for nearly half of the EU's electricity generation in 2025.