Analysis: Why Regime Change in Iran Has Failed and What Lies Ahead

Political analyst Michael Wise argues in a piece for Arutz Sheva that Iran's continued nuclear activities and support for proxy groups represent a failure of Western foreign policy toward Tehran. He contends that previous strategies have failed to exert effective pressure on the Islamic Republic's complex security and military structure due to a lack of consistency and coordination. Wise suggests that regime change or behavioral change requires a deep understanding of history and avoiding past mistakes.

Referencing nationwide protests in Iran, including the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement, the analysis emphasizes that the Iranian people desire change, but the lack of organized support and fragmentation among opposition groups have hindered results. The author warns that encouraging citizens to revolt without providing organized support is a moral hazard that can lead to bloody crackdowns.

Wise also highlights Donald Trump's new economic plan, dubbed 'Economic D-Day,' which aims to sever all financial lifelines of the Islamic Republic. He notes that by targeting oil exports, trade routes, and financial institutions, this plan will exert unprecedented pressure on Tehran. Iranian officials have responded with threats of retaliatory actions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ultimately, the analysis suggests that a successful strategy must include three main pillars: maintaining sustained and coordinated economic pressure, directly supporting the Iranian people through secure communications and independent media, and creating fractures within the regime's security apparatus by targeting the economic interests of the IRGC. Wise stresses that foreign powers cannot impose a government on the Iranian people and that any political transition must be led by Iranians themselves.