Shifting Balance in Syria: Why Israel Targeted the Abu al-Duhur Airbase

The recent Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria is more than a routine military operation; it marks a transition from the era of countering Iranian influence to a new phase focused on shaping Syria's post-Assad security architecture. Located just 70 kilometers from the Turkish border, the base had recently hosted Turkish military delegations assessing its potential for restoration and reactivation. Analysts suggest that by striking this site, Israel aims to prevent the consolidation of a Turkish military presence and the rapid reconstruction of Syrian air and air-defense capabilities under Ankara's patronage. Unlike Iran, which operated primarily through proxies, Turkey is a NATO member with a conventional army and advanced intelligence infrastructure, posing a different challenge to Israel's aerial freedom of action. Through this strike, Israel is signaling red lines to both Damascus and Ankara, seeking to prevent Syria from becoming a Turkish-dominated military space that would require complex coordination. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the United States is working to establish a deconfliction mechanism between Israel, Turkey, and Syria, as the lack of such coordination could lead to broader military escalation.