Analysis: Will the Trump administration’s economic pressure strategy against the regime ruling Iran succeed?

Political analyst Dr. Salem AlKetbi writes in a piece for Arutz Sheva that the Donald Trump administration has shifted its strategy from focusing solely on military action to cutting off the financial resources and trade routes of the regime ruling Iran. According to AlKetbi, Washington's goal is to turn financial pressure into a tool that acts as a noose, restricting the regime's maritime, aerial, and banking trade. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described these measures as unprecedented in the history of economic sanctions. Since President Donald Trump returned to office, more than 1,000 individuals, vessels, and aircraft linked to the regime ruling Iran have been targeted. Data from Reuters and Kepler indicate that the regime's oil exports dropped from an average of 1.67 million barrels per day in 2025 to approximately 260,000 barrels in May 2026. This sharp decline in foreign currency revenue has pressured the regime's ability to fund its war efforts and manage its domestic economy. While the regime ruling Iran has decades of experience in circumventing sanctions, the analyst argues that the rising costs of middlemen and shipping have made these alternative routes prohibitively expensive for Tehran. According to IMF estimates, Iran's economy is expected to shrink by about 5.4 percent this year, with inflation reaching nearly 69 percent. The ultimate success of this strategy depends on Washington's ability to close escape routes and sustain pressure until the cost of maintaining these paths becomes unsustainable for the regime ruling Iran.