Analysis: Continued flow of dual-use components from China to Iran

A recent report by The Times of Israel, citing customs data, alleges that 1,300 shipments containing dual-use components were sent from China to Iran this year. These shipments, which include engines, GPS equipment, and advanced electronic parts, are classified as dual-use because they can be utilised in both civilian industries and the development of military systems, including drones and missiles. The report also highlights a significant increase in activity by Mahan Air, which has reportedly increased its flights between China and Iran sevenfold since the onset of regional tensions. UKFarsi analysts suggest these data points indicate that Iran's defence industry supply chain remains dependent on East Asian markets, despite US sanctions pressure. While China consistently maintains that its exports are commercial and civilian in nature, the high volume of trade and the involvement of sanctioned companies raise serious questions regarding the effectiveness of export control regimes. For Iran, access to these components facilitates the continued mass production of aerial systems that play a key role in Middle Eastern security dynamics. Diplomatically, this report may increase pressure on Beijing to provide transparency regarding the final destination of its exported goods. Ultimately, this trend suggests that Western sanctions policies aimed at completely blocking Iran's access to sensitive technologies face structural challenges in global markets, remaining a primary variable in regional security calculations.